Uncategorized

The Likelihood of Dying from COVID-19

COVID-19 Infection Fatality Risk

There is a lot of conflicting info out there…  How deadly is COVID-19, really?  

The most recent and best estimate of the infection-fatality risk (IFR) of COVID-19 is 1.45%.  In other words, 1.45% (or 1 in 69) of all those infected with the disease (not just those with symptoms or those that have received positive test results) do not survive.  As expected, risk significantly increases with age.  

The following infographic shows the estimated IFR as calculated by epidemiologists at Columbia University. 

COVID-19 Stats Data Visualizations

Reopening PA: Data-Based Heatmap and Graphs June 3, 2020

PA-data-based-reopening-heatmap-june-3-2020

Please note, this is not PA’s official reopening map.

Some observations:

There has been a sharp decline of newly reported cases in Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia Counties.

Bucks County now has the fewest reported new cases in the last 14 days per 100k residents in the Philly Metro Area;

The number of reported positive cases in Chester County has remained relatively flat. 

Dauphin County, home to the PA Capital of Harrisburg, now rivals Philadelphia with the second highest number of confirmed cases per capita.

COVID-19 Stats Data Visualizations

Reopening PA: Data-Based Heatmap and Graphs May 30, 2020

Reopening PA: Data-Based Heatmap and Graphs May 30, 2020 1

Naturally, being the data nerd that I am, I want to follow the counties as they reopen.  So I created my own reopening heatmap using the number of cases reported by the State of PA’s Health Department in the last 14 days, per 100k residents of the county.  Please note, this is not PA’s official reopening map. 

Of course, a heatmap only shows us a snapshot in time and doesn’t really give us much insight into how a county is trending.  So to provide more context, I also created a few graphs similar to the ones featured on my PA COVID-19 Stats page for all counties in the state. 

COVID-19 Stats Data Visualizations

Reopening PA

Reopening PA On April 22, 2020, Governor Tom Wolf announced a plan to slowly reopen Pennsylvania. The state will open in three phases: red, yellow, and green.  Here is a synopsis of each of the phases:  Source: “Process to Reopen Pennsylvania,” PA Governor’s website. Currently, all Pennsylvania counties are in the red phase.  According to …