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The Likelihood of Dying from COVID-19

COVID-19 Infection Fatality Risk

There is a lot of conflicting info out there…  How deadly is COVID-19, really?  

The most recent and best estimate of the infection-fatality risk (IFR) of COVID-19 is 1.45%.  In other words, 1.45% (or 1 in 69) of all those infected with the disease (not just those with symptoms or those that have received positive test results) do not survive.  As expected, fatality risk significantly increases with age.  

The IFR is different than the case-fatality rate, which considers only confirmed cases in the calculation.  When including only those that test positive, the mortality rate appears much higher.  For example, Pennsylvania’s current case-fatality rate is about 7.25%  (6904 total deaths/95,266 total cases reported as of 7/12/20). The IFR provides a more accurate measure since it estimates and takes into account all infections.

The following infographic shows the estimated IFR as calculated by epidemiologists at Columbia University.  

It’s worth noting that death is not the only adverse outcome of the coronavirus.  Many people – young and old alike – experience short and long-term health issues, the extent of which we are only just beginning to understand.  

And yet, on the flip-side, a large portion of those infected have no symptoms at all.  In fact, the CDC now estimates that 40% of all COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic.  However, even without symptoms, COVID-19 can be easily transmitted to others.

Now, more than ever, it’s important to remember that our actions impact those around us.  What we do today directly (and indirectly) affect our family, friends, neighbors, and even the community as a whole.

So stay smart.  Wear those masks and maintain social distancing when possible. 

And as always, stay safe and stay well~



US & PA Coronavirus Update: 7.10.20

US Daily Summary

US COVID-19 Update 7.10.20

(Reported by each state on 7.9.20)

The US reported 63,264 new cases on July 9th – a new daily record – with concerning surges being seen across the South.   Texas (11,612) , California (9,924), and Florida(8,935) account for almost half of the country’s new cases.

US Daily Summary

Although a small portion of this increase may be attributed to July 4th festivities, we likely won’t see infections from July 4th for another few days.  The cases reported on July 9th are likely from infections that were transmitted between June 25 – July 2.  

For more information, check out my interactive heatmaps and graphs for the US by clicking on one of the links (menu on mobile) below: 

PA Update 7.10.20

UPDATE 7pm The PA Department of Health reported 875 new cases today on their website and on the PA COVID-19 Dashboard.  However, the agency publicly announced 1,009 new cases were reported today.   I’m not sure where the discrepancy lies, but I’m going to keep the data as officially reported (for now anyway).  I apologize for any confusion.  

The PA Department of Health reported 875 new COVID-19 cases today, bringing the state total to 93,876.   Many of these new cases came from western and central PA, which reopened before the Philly suburbs.  Allegheny county, which went green five weeks ago today on June 5, reported 141 – the most in the state. 

After several weeks of steadily decreasing, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations appear to slowly be trending upward, with 656 current patients at the time of this posting.  Although we obviously don’t want anyone to be hospitalized with this, a slow rise is encouraging.  The main reason we stayed home was to flatten the curve and prevent our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.   

To monitor the rate of change in hospitals and ultimately help keep an eye on how quickly they are filling, I’ve created a new chart showing the daily change in the total number of hospital patients.  Please note that this is not the same thing as new hospitalizations, which is the number of new patients admitted each day.  PA has not released data on new hospitalizations, discharges, or hospital deaths. 

Click here to see more PA coronavirus data – including breakdowns of testing and hospitalizations by county –  through interactive charts and maps.  

Please note these visuals reflect data as reported by the PA Department of Health, which may differ slightly from than the data reported by JHU in the MLM US COVID-19 Tracker. 

Thanks for visiting.  If you found this information valuable, please share!

As always, stay well~